Are Immigrants Positively or Negatively Selected? The Role of Immigrant Selection Criteria and Self-Selection

This paper specifies and estimates a structural model of international migration using micro data. This provides a direct test of human capital theory that suggests that individuals respond to the earnings differentials across countries while making their migration decisions. The paper specifies migration as a joint outcome of two decision makers, i.e. the individual who decides to apply for migration and the host country that reviews applications, and identifies the factors determining the decision of these two players. The empirical results provide evidence in support of the human capital model. It is also shown that both the host country and the individual have significant impacts on the resulting charatersitics of immigrants. The results suggest negative self-selection at the application stage both in terms of observed and unobserved characteristics and a positive selection at the review step by the host country. Although there is negative self- selection in terms of schooling among applicants, as a result of the positive selection at the review step the resulting migrants are positively selected. However, in terms of unobservable characteristics the review step is unable to reverse the negative self-selection that occurs at the application stage, and the resulting migrants are negatively selected in this dimension.immigration, self-selection, Roy Model, immigration policy

Effects of Business Cycles on Labour Market Assimilation of Immigrants

This study addresses the effects of macroeconomic conditions on the labour market outcomes of immigrants. It simultaneously identifies the separate effects of macro conditions at the time of entry to the labour market and at the time of the survey, while allowing for cohort effects. Also, for the first time in literature the impacts on labour force participation along with employment outcomes are explored. The study uses 19 annual cross-sections of the Survey of Consumer Finances covering the period 1979 to 1997. The results suggest that the deterioration in the assimilation of recent immigrants is partly due to the adverse economic conditions they face in the year they enter the labour market and subsequently. Macroeconomic conditions at the time of labour market entry have adverse impacts on both labour force participation and employment. With the inclusion of controls for macro conditions, the significance and magnitude of the coefficient measuring assimilation increases. Therefore, not only the estimated cohort effects bur also the assimilation profiles are sensitive to the inclusion of controls for business cycles.Immigration, business cycle, cohort effects, economic assimilation, labour force participation, employment

Effects of Business Cycles on Labour Market Assimilation of Immigrants

This study addresses the effects of macroeconomic conditions on the labour market outcomes of immigrants. It simultaneously identifies the separate effects of macro conditions at the time of entry to the labour market and at the time of the survey, while allowing for cohort effects. Also, for the first time in literature the impacts on labour force participation along with employment outcomes are explored. The study uses 19 annual cross-sections of the Survey of Consumer Finances covering the period 1979 to 1997. The results suggest that the deterioration in the assimilation of recent immigrants is partly due to the adverse economic conditions they face in the year they enter the labour market and subsequently. Macroeconomic conditions at the time of labour market entry have adverse impacts on both labour force participation and employment. With the inclusion of controls for macro conditions, the significance and magnitude of the coefficient measuring assimilation increases. Therefore, not only the estimated cohort effects bur also the assimilation profiles are sensitive to the inclusion of controls for business cycles.Immigration, business cycle, cohort effects, economic assimilation, labour force participation, employment

Explaining the Deteriorating Entry Earnings of Canada’s Immigrant

The study explores causes of the deterioration in entry earnings of Canadian immigrant cohorts by estimating an empirical specification that nests a number of competing explanations found in the Canadian literature. To do this, we use the pooled sample of Canadian-born and immigrant men employed full-year, full-time from the complete 20 percent samples of the 1981, 1986, 1991, 1996 and 2001 Canadian Censuses. Our results indicate that no more than one-third of the deterioration can be explained by compositional shifts in the knowledge of an official language, mother tongue and region of origin of recent immigrant cohorts. We also find little or no evidence that declining returns to foreign education are responsible. Roughly one-third of the deterioration appears to be due to a persistent decline in the returns to foreign labour market experience which has occurred almost exclusively among immigrants originating from non-traditional source countries. We are able to explain two-thirds of the overall decline in the entry earnings of Canada’s most recent immigrants without any reference to entry labour market conditions. When we also account for entry conditions, our results suggest that Canada’s immigrants who arrived in the 1995-1999 period would otherwise be enjoying entry earnings that were significantly higher than the entry earnings of the 1965-1969 cohort.immigration, entry earnings, cohort effects, earnings assimilation, credentials

Quasi-Experimental Impact Estimates of Immigrant Labor Supply Shocks: The Role of Treatment and Comparison Group Matching and Relative Skill Composition

This paper examines the employment effects of an increase in labor supply using the politically-driven exodus of ethnic Turks from Bulgaria into Turkey in 1989. The strong involvement of the Turkish state in the settlement of earlier waves of repatriates provides us a strong source of exogenous variation in the 1989 immigrant shock across locations. Using a potential sample of 613 cities and towns in Turkey with variable treatment intensity - in some locations the change in the labor force is almost 10 percent - this analysis places much attention on constructing a matched sample that is well balanced in terms of covariate distributions of the treatment and comparison groups, including matching based on an estimated propensity score. We find a positive effect of repatriates on the unemployment of non-repatriates. In fact, in certain regions, a 10-percentage-point increase in the share of repatriates in the labor force increases the unemployment rate of natives by 4 percentage points. When the analysis is done according to skill groups, we find that the impact is the strongest on the young and on non-repatriates with similar educational attainment.Labor Force and Employment, Immigrant Workers, Quasi experiments

Immigrant Selection and Short-Term Labour Market Outcomes by Visa Category

This paper studies the efficacy of immigrant selection based on skill requirements in the Canadian context. The point system results in a much higher skill level than would otherwise be achieved by family preferences. This positive selection is achieved by directly selecting higher skilled principal applicants who are assessed by the point system and also indirectly through higher skilled spouses. However, due to difficulties in transfer of foreign human capital immigrants admitted for their skills do not necessarily perform better in the labour market and important factors used to assess admissibility have very limited power to predict short-term labour market success.visa category, point system, immigration

Intergenerational Earnings Mobility Among the Children of Canadian Immigrants

We analyze the intergenerational income mobility of Canadians born to immigrants using the 2001 Census. A detailed portrait of the Canadian population is offered as are estimates of the degree of generational mobility among the children of immigrants from 70 countries. The degree of persistence as estimated in regression to the mean models is about the same for immigrants as for the entire population, and there is more generational mobility among immigrants in Canada than in the United States. We also use quantile regressions to distinguish between the role of social capital from other constraints limiting mobility and find that these are present and associated with father’s education.Immigrants, children, generational mobility

Intergenerational Education Mobility among the Children of Canadian Immigrants

We analyze the intergenerational education mobility of Canadian men and women born to immigrants. A detailed portrait of Canadians is offered, as are estimates of the degree of generational mobility among the children of immigrants. Persistence in the years of schooling across the generations is rather weak between immigrants and their Canadian born children, and a third as strong as for the general population. Parental earnings is not correlated with years of schooling for second generation children, and if anything negatively correlated. Finally we find that the intergenerational transmission of education has not changed across the birth cohorts of the post-war period.immigrants, education, intergenerational mobility